Trump Between Gaza and the U.S. Elections: A Shift in the Equation

Trump at an election night party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

By Jawdat Manna

President Donald Trump did not unveil his plan to resolve the Israeli–Palestinian conflict out of idealism or a genuine desire to bring peace to the Middle East, but rather in response to the political, media, and military shifts triggered by Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza. The devastating campaign, widely condemned as genocidal, has forced the White House to reassess its stance amid mounting domestic and international pressure.

Trump’s initiative came shortly after the “tsunami” of international recognitions of the State of Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly, followed by a wave of diplomatic outreach to Arab and Muslim leaders aimed at containing global outrage. Yet, the timing of this move is inseparable from the approaching U.S. congressional elections, where Trump seeks to avoid having unconditional support for Israel become a political liability that could hand Democrats an advantage.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces an unprecedented political isolation at home. Polls show his popularity plummeting by more than 68 percent, with growing calls for his resignation and prosecution over the consequences of the Gaza war. Trump’s recent remarks — including his warning to Netanyahu that “you can’t fight the world” — suggest an acknowledgment that Israel has reached a political breaking point and that prolonging the conflict threatens U.S. interests as much as Israel’s.

The White House, for its part, has openly expressed concern over Israel’s collapsing image worldwide, even advising it not to obstruct Trump’s initiative. This apparent shift, tactical as it may seem, signals a deeper realization in Washington: that blind alignment with Tel Aviv is no longer sustainable in an age shaped by global opinion and moral scrutiny. Restoring balance to U.S. policy in the Middle East is no longer a choice — it’s an imperative.

Jawdat Manna Journalist and Executive Director of the House of Memory – Jerusalem Museum Network, recognized as the most active institution in the Arab world working for Jerusalem by the Jerusalem Intellectuals Forums.